ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

JPM // JPMorgan Chase & Co.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000019617 ↗
Financials • Money Center Banking, Investment Banking & Asset Management • SIC 6021
$337.04 ▼ -6.54 (-1.90%)
MKT CAP: $913.30B • VOL: 7.91M
JPM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 62/100 [C] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
63 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 OPRA GEX + SEC 13F
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
NET GEX +28% • CALL SWEEP 82% • P/C 1.12
03 SEC FORM 4 (90D)
Insider Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.12 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.59
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 1 CRIT / 2 MED • ESCALATING
ALERT

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JPM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.57%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $339.3H $343.6L $337.0C $337.0VOL 5.81M
SUP: $331.4SMA50: $322.8SMA200: $235.7
$375.7$337.7$299.8$261.8$223.9SUP $331.4$337.02026-05-082026-06-182026-08-072026-09-182026-11-02
JPM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

JPMorgan Chase presents a high-quality balance sheet compounder trading at 13.8x Trailing P/E and 13.6x Forward P/E, supported by an elite 42.1% Operating Margin and 17.4% ROIC. While headline Free Cash Flow Yield of -18.05% reflects massive commercial bank balance sheet expansion and loan-book originations, top-line acceleration to 27.7% YoY in Q2 2026 confirms dominant pricing power and trading desk share. Near-term asymmetry leans positive toward the $394.54 mean consensus target, though intermediate chop between the $343.29 50D SMA and $322.95 200D SMA requires disciplined scale-in sizing.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Underlying Earnings Power and ROIC Inflection

Operating leverage expanded sharply in Q2 2026, delivering 48.0% Operating Margin and $21.16B in Net Income on $57.35B in revenue, driving quarterly ROIC up to 22.6% against a TTM baseline of 17.4%.

OPERATING MARGIN: 42.1% | ROIC: 17.4% | TTM EPS: $23.35
02. Dominant Corporate and Retail Moat Defensibility

JPM retains massive liquidity reserves of $309.81B in cash with a low 0.19x Debt-to-Equity ratio, while locking in non-interest revenue streams via 44% customer corporate treasury exposure to AAPL and 43% exposure to AMZN consumer ecosystems.

DEBT-TO-EQUITY: 0.19x | CASH: $309.81B | REV YOY: 13.5%
03. Compressed Valuation Relative to Through-Cycle Capital Returns

At 13.6x Forward P/E and 9.7x EV/EBITDA paired with a 1.96% dividend yield, the stock trades at an attractive entry relative to the Street mean price target of $394.54, implying 17.1% upside potential from the current $337.04 price.

FORWARD P/E: 13.6x | EV/EBITDA: 9.7x | DIV YIELD: 1.96%
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Severe Operating Cash Outflows and Synthetic FCF Deficit

Reported TTM Free Cash Flow Yield stands at -18.05%, driven by consecutive large cash burns including -$25.28B in Q2 2026, -$211.76B in Q1 2026, and -$147.78B in FY 2025, which limits immediate unencumbered cash distributions.

FCF YIELD: -18.05% | FY2025 FCF: -$147.78B | Q1 2026 FCF: -$211.76B
02. Credit Spread Sensitivity and High-Yield Contagion Risk

Desk sensitivity modeling reveals strong downside elasticity to widening credit spreads; with HY OAS currently tight at 3.26%, a standard +50 bps blowout historically induces a -5.75% weekly return contraction on JPM equity.

BAMLH0A0HYM2: 3.26% | PEARSON R: -0.59 | SPREAD ELASTICITY: -5.75%
03. Options Defensive Skew and Sub-50-Day Moving Average Weakness

Technicals reflect near-term institutional hedging, marked by a Put/Call ratio of 1.12, price rejection below the 50D SMA ($343.29), an RSI-14 of 49.0, and gravitational pull toward the $330.00 Max Pain strike.

PUT/CALL: 1.12 | MAX PAIN: $330.00 | 50D SMA: $343.29
KEY CATALYST // Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Net Interest Income (NII) guidance update, where options markets price a 4.8% implied move against the $330.00 max pain level; a sustained hold above the $343.29 50D SMA unlocks re-rating toward the $394.54 consensus target.
MACRO REGIME // JPM exhibits strong negative sensitivity to credit spread widening (BAMLH0A0HYM2 OAS at 3.26%, r = -0.59, R² = 0.35) and volatility spikes (VIXCLS at 17.2, r = -0.55, R² = 0.30, where a +5.0 pt spike cuts returns by -2.95%). Conversely, macro resilience is bolstered by modest positive correlation to labor slack (UNRATE at 4.2%, r = +0.24), while PCE inflation expansions act as an intermediate headwind (PCEPI at 132.257, r = -0.22).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
Leopold Robin SELL $882.0K
Leopold Robin SELL $903.5K
Citadel Advisors (Ken Griffin) BUY $207.4M
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) BUY $468.3M
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
$333 (2026-11-06) PUT $215.9K
$338 (2026-11-06) CALL $276.2K
$340 (2026-11-27) CALL $153.7K
$318 (2026-11-06) CALL $339.8K
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.8x
FORWARD P/E 13.3x
EV / EBITDA 9.7x
FCF YIELD -18.14%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 42.1%
NET MARGIN 32.6%
ROIC % 17.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $23.35
DEBT / EQUITY 0.19x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.96%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.59, R² = 34.6% over 156W): a +50 bps rise in BAMLH0A0HYM2 historically maps to -5.75% weekly return elasticity on JPM.
Strong inverse linkage (r = -0.55, R² = 30.3% over 260W): a +5.0 pt volatility spike in VIXCLS historically maps to -2.95% weekly return elasticity on JPM.
Tactical positive linkage (r = +0.24, R² = 6% over 257W): a +50 bps rise in UNRATE historically maps to +10.47% weekly return elasticity on JPM.
Tactical inverse linkage (r = -0.22, R² = 4.8% over 257W): a +1.0% expansion in PCEPI historically maps to -8.83% weekly return elasticity on JPM.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // JPMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
73/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
BAMLH0A0HYM2 // -0.59 r
Latest: 3.26%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-7.99%
Implied Px: $310.11
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$3,995
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for JPM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>