ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CSX // CSX Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000277948 ↗
Industrials • Railroads
$51.99 ▼ -0.25 (-0.48%)
MKT CAP: $96.30B • VOL: 17.94M
CSX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -37% vs NI -16.7% • ROIC-WACC +10% • Z 2.88
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 93% • VS 200D +14.2% • RSI 68.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.02 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.31
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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CSX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.26%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $51.98H $52.24L $51.98C $51.99VOL 13.15M
RES: $52.95SUP: $46.33SMA50: $48.89SMA200: $45.76
$54.74$50.01$45.29$40.56$35.83RES $52.95SUP $46.33$51.992026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CSX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

CSX Corporation (CSX) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 17.2% return on invested capital within Industrials (Railroads), balanced against a 14.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 32.1% operating margin and 17.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.1% paired with 1.78% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.1% // FCF YLD: 1.78%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.88 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.88 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 33.3x trailing P/E (31.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 33.3x // EV/EBITDA: 14.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $51.99 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Railroads require continuous execution to defend 20.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.5% // D/E: 0.97x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 31.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 33.3x
FORWARD P/E 31.0x
EV / EBITDA 14.9x
FCF YIELD 1.78%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 32.1%
NET MARGIN 20.5%
ROIC % 17.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.57
DEBT / EQUITY 0.97x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.01%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CSXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $47.57
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>